Miami, Fla. – (National Hurrircane Center statement as of 2:00 p.m.)


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 


200 PM EDT TUE AUG 13 2013 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...


CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO.
















1. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...


EXTEND FROM CENTRAL AMERICA NORTHEASTWARD TO NEAR JAMAICA. 


UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR 


DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF  DAYS WHILE THE DISTURBANCE 













MOVES TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BUT COULD BECOME LESS FAVORABLE 


OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO IN A FEW DAYS. THIS  SYSTEM HAS A LOW 


CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING 


THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING 


A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. 
















2. A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA IS PRODUCING 


DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE 


EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE 


DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS UNTIL THE WAVE ENTERS A MORE STABLE 













ENVIRONMENT BY THIS WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT


...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW 


CHANCE...20 PERCENT... OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 


5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD AND THEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 MPH. 





FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013.