The pesky tropical 'disturbance' we've all been keeping our eyes on over the past week has now dissolved. NOAA and the National Hurricane Center (NHC) have dropped investigation and further updates regarding that system, which formed in the western Caribbean last Monday and slowly moved into the lower Gulf of Mexico.

Residents and visitors to the Alabama and Florida panhandle beaches may swear we're experiencing rainfall amounts the likes of which would be expected from a 'named' tropical cyclone. Flood watches remain in effect for the entire Gulf Coast region, at least through Sunday night. 

A dip in the upper-level jetstream and a stalled frontal boundary combine to stream heavy rainfall into the entire southestern U.S. this afternoon.

The named storm 'Erin' has bounced between a status of weak Tropical Storm and Tropical Depression over the past day, still located far to the east in the Atlantic Ocean. The NHC now predicts "Erin likely to become remnant low (pressure system) soon."

On the heels of those updates, NHC now has sights on a new tropical wave off the coast of Africa. Here's the latest (2:00 p.m. Aug. 18) statement:

 A TROPICAL WAVE BETWEEN THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA AND THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS.  ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AT ABOUT 10 MPH DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.  FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013.