As climate change escalates, its impacts on hurricanes and coastal communities are becoming increasingly severe, a reality highlighted by the uncertainty surrounding Tropical Storm Helene this week.
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As climate change escalates, its impacts on hurricanes and coastal communities are becoming increasingly severe, a reality highlighted by the uncertainty surrounding Tropical Storm Helene this week.
September, recognized as National Preparedness Month, serves as a timely reminder of the need for individuals and communities, especially coastal communities like ours, to plan ahead.
Andra (Reed) Garner, an associate professor of environmental science at Rowan University, emphasized the intricate relationship between climate change, storm surges and rising sea levels, highlighting the importance of adaptation and mitigation strategies.
"The largest component of that storm surge comes from the winds within the storm," she said during a recent media briefing.
"Storm surge is one of the most damaging aspects of many landfalling hurricanes," she said.
As global temperatures rise, scientists are increasingly confident storm surges will worsen due to rising sea levels.
"When we heat up our oceans, the water expands, causing sea levels to rise," Garner explained, which effectively gives storm surges a "head start" on flooding.
Her research, published in 2017, highlighted the frequency of storm surge flooding in New York City. A 7.4-foot flood, which historically occurred every 500 years, could now happen every 25 years, with projections indicating that by mid-century, such floods could occur every five to 10 years.
A 2023 study by Garner revealed modern hurricanes are more than twice as likely to rapidly intensify from weaker storms to major hurricanes.
"Storms that intensify really quickly can be especially dangerous and especially difficult to forecast," she said.
In light of these increasing risks, Garner calls for immediate action, advocating for strategies such as constructing seawalls and preserving natural barriers like salt marshes.
"So right now we need to be thinking about how we can adapt our coastal communities to handle worsening storm surge impacts," she said.
As hurricane seasons grow increasingly intense, the impact on infrastructure remains a concern for many coastal communities.
Antonia Sebastian, an assistant professor at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, specializes in flood hazards related to hurricanes. Her work emphasizes the importance of understanding and preparing for the increasing severity of storms.
The Atlantic hurricane season, which spans from June 1 to Nov. 30, historically averages 14 named storms annually, with about two making landfall in the U.S. However, the 2024 season has over 20 named storms predicted. As of mid-September, the season had already seen multiple landfalls, including Beryl in Texas, Debbie along the Southeast and Francine in Louisiana, even as Helene bears down on Florida.
"We're currently on hurricane No. 7, or we just surpassed tropical cyclone No. 7, Gordon, which dissipated out in the Atlantic basin," Sebastian noted during the Sept. 18 media briefing. "But we're expecting to see more activity. And, really, we're only about halfway through the season."
Sebastian highlights two major hazards when discussing hurricane impacts: wind and water.
"Wind hazards, which, of course, can produce a lot of damage by blowing roofs off of things and knocking over, let's say, electricity poles, etc.," she said.
However, water-related hazards, including storm surges and precipitation-induced flooding, often create the most destruction. Rapid, heavy rainfall can lead to localized flooding, often referred to as urban or pluvial flooding, while river levels rise due to runoff. The combination of these factors — known as compound flooding — poses a significant challenge, particularly in coastal areas where storm surge and precipitation interact.
As climate change progresses, Sebastian said the characteristics of tropical cyclones are likely to become more dangerous.
"We're expecting that there will be higher wind speeds, more category 4 and 5 hurricanes," she said. "We're going to see higher sea levels that might lead to higher storm surges and more coastal inundation."
A trend is the slowing forward speed of hurricanes, which allows for prolonged rainfall in one area, exacerbating flooding. The intensification of storms as they approach landfall raises questions about how well communities can withstand future storms.
In light of these growing risks, Sebastian emphasizes the importance of community adaptation.
"The No. 1 predictor is the coincidence of these hazards with exposure," she explained. "So, how much stuff and people is in harm's way will determine whether or not there are impacts from a hurricane event."
The greater the number of people and infrastructure located in harm's way, the greater the potential for damage. This necessitates a focus on building resilience through both structural and policy-related solutions.
Several communities have already taken measures to reduce their vulnerability. Stricter development standards, such as elevating homes or restricting development in flood-prone areas, can help mitigate flood risks. Additionally, hardening utilities and critical infrastructure, such as hospitals and schools, is essential. Sebastian cited the Texas Medical Center's response to Tropical Storm Allison in 2001, where floodwalls and gates were constructed to protect the facility — an approach that has proven effective over time.
Nature-based solutions, often referred to as soft structures, are also gaining traction. Living shorelines, bioswales and the preservation of open spaces can help manage stormwater and provide natural barriers to extreme weather. Floodproofing, making structures more resilient to damage, is another adaptation strategy. Policy changes, such as increasing hazard disclosure requirements for homeowners, are also key to addressing flood risks.
Sebastian warned that without significant investment in resilient infrastructure, communities will continue to face heightened risks.
Hurricanes also have profound impacts on both physical and mental health. Timothy Collins, co-director of the Center for Natural and Technological Hazards and professor of geography at the University of Utah, recently discussed the multifaceted health and social consequences of hurricanes, particularly their inequitable effects and environmental justice implications.
While the actual storm can cause physical injury, the aftermath can also exacerbate respiratory issues, spread gastrointestinal illnesses and lead to other communicable diseases.
Collins said the hidden dangers during post-storm cleanup efforts pose additional risks, such as electrocution, dehydration and heat exhaustion.
Furthermore, the economic impact of a hurricane can lead to long-term mental health problems, with survivors often experiencing depression, anxiety and post-traumatic stress.
Measuring mortality in the aftermath of hurricanes is complex.
"Official estimates usually do not capture deaths that are indirectly attributable to hurricanes, such as preventable deaths caused by disruptions to medical care from treatable conditions like pneumonia, heart disease, diabetes or Alzheimer's disease," he said. "Medical care disruptions include the inability to access medications, inability to use medical equipment that requires electricity, closed medical facilities and absent doctors."
Excess death analyses, which compare observed death rates during and after a hurricane to expected mortality rates, offer a clearer picture. Citing Hurricane Maria as an example, Collins noted that an initial government report attributed 64 deaths to the storm, but subsequent analyses estimated nearly 3,000 excess deaths.
Health disparities during and after hurricanes disproportionately affect marginalized communities. According to Collins, research consistently shows that people of color, those from low-income backgrounds and women bear the brunt of hurricane impacts. He referenced studies from Hurricanes Katrina, Sandy and Harvey that found racial and ethnic minorities, as well as lower-income neighborhoods, were more likely to suffer from severe flooding compared to wealthier communities.
"Social vulnerability shapes people's capacities to protect themselves and their families before, during and after hurricane events," Collins said.
As hurricanes intensify due to climate change, he emphasized the need for increased investment in pre-disaster mitigation, particularly for vulnerable communities.
"A comprehensive study found that every $1 spent on a Federal Emergency Management Agency hazard mitigation grant produced $4 of benefits in terms of avoided future losses," he noted.
The highest returns come from projects aimed at reducing hurricane wind and flood damage, yielding $5 in benefits for every $1 spent.
Collins highlighted the importance of tailoring mitigation strategies to the specific vulnerabilities of different communities. For example, a Florida community of retirees in mobile homes with high rates of disability requires different risk reduction measures than a community in Texas's Rio Grande Valley, where poverty and insecure housing conditions prevail.
Ultimately, Collins urged for a forward-thinking approach to hurricane recovery.
"There's a need for larger-scale funding to support long-term recovery and adaptation, especially for impacted vulnerable populations," he said. "You must think about recovery at this point in a forward-looking manner as a means to reduce future risks and successfully build more hurricane-resilient communities."
The recovery process is often defined by a community's ability to rebuild.
"The impact, the devastation occurs; and there is some disruption due to the damages to the infrastructure that is there. And I think a big question is, what does the recovery of that place look like? Can those living there afford to rebuild what is there, or do they have access to other types of funding to rebuild what was there?" Sebastian said.
She said when residents cannot afford to return or rebuild, the fabric of the community may be permanently disrupted, forcing people to relocate or shift their livelihoods, particularly in small fishing communities facing repetitive flooding.
Collins echoed these sentiments, referencing studies conducted after Hurricane Katrina.
"There were a number of studies focused on population displacement and that found that particular groups of people, people of lower socioeconomic status, people from particular minority racial ethnic backgrounds that really didn't return to the coast where they were from after the event over time, or at lower rates they were able to return. And so there's permanent displacement that occurs," he said. "And I think when that happens you have to conclude that there has been fundamental disintegration of that cultural fabric."
Sebastian also highlighted growing research on the financial impacts of flooding, stating, "There is a growing area of research on the impacts, the systemic risks to let's say mortgages from floods and whether or not direct damage, damages can lead to indirect losses that cause people, for example, to not be able to return or to have to default on a mortgage."
