Miami, Fla. – TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK, NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER 


MIAMI FL


800 PM EDT TUE AUG 13 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...












1. A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING A 


LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS 


EXTENDINGF ROM CENTRAL AMERICA NORTHEASTWARD TO JAMAICA AND 


EASTERN CUBA.















UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME MORE FAVORABLE...AND SOME DEVELOPMENT


OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT

MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA

AND SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BE A

LITTLE MORE MARGINAL FOR DEVELOPMENT WHILE THE SYSTEM IS OVER THE












GULF OF MEXICO LATER THIS WEEK.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...

30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48

HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL

CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

2. A TROPICAL WAVE JUST OFF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA IS PRODUCING












DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  ENVIRONMENTAL

CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM

DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE IT REACHES COOLER WATER AND

DRIER AIR BY THE WEEKEND.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20

PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48












HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL

CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT

ABOUT 10 MPH.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013.