Baldwin County's population is projected to reach 350,000 by 2038, according to data from the Baldwin County Economic Development Alliance provided in a presentation at Coastal Alabama Business Chamber’s Friday Forum on July 12.

The county's population currently sits at 260,998, with equivalent population estimated at 375,629 when the number of visitors (114,631) is considered through expenditures and consumption. Baldwin County has seen an 85% growth in population since 2000 and ranks in the top 1.75% of 3,143 counties for population growth since 2010, according to the U.S. Census Bureau, Alabama Tourism Department, Jobs EQ and Federal Reserve economic data.

In the same breath, the Alliance states that 55.3% of counties are declining in population or have been stagnant since 2010, with only 21.4% of counties growing 1% or more from 2020-2023. During that span, the population in Baldwin County grew by 8.7%.

The county also lands within the top 1.5% in net migration, according to StatsAmerica.

"When you’re ranked in the top 10 in nearly every economic category, the goal is to keep pressing forward and achieving economic development success," Lee Lawson, BCEDA president and CEO, told Gulf Coast Media. "Tourism is a crucial element in this process, driving new money into our local economy and bolstering our community's robust growth and job creation."

The Alabama Department of Tourism reports $7.9 billion in visitor spending each year, and because of Baldwin County's continuous growth in tourism, the area has become Alabama's leader in per capita tax revenue.

Job and wage growth is on the rise as well, with the Daphne-Fairhope-Foley MSA hosting more business establishments per capita than anywhere else in the state, simultaneously falling within the top 1% of MSAs nationwide in wage and salary growth. Top sectors for Baldwin County job growth through the last quarter of 2023 include professional, scientific and technical services; arts, entertainment and recreation; information; and construction, among others.

Novelis, a $2.5 billion aluminum plant currently under construction in Bay Minette, is projected to generate 1,000 new direct jobs in the county, 900 new permanent indirect jobs in the region and more than $4.1 billion in Baldwin County capital investment, according to the Alliance. Its $65,000 average annual wage is also 35% higher than the county's current average. Meanwhile, the Loxley I-10 Logistics Corridor, which includes facilities for Aldi and the Home Depot, among others, boasts 360 new direct jobs in the county and more than $150 million in capital investment.

"Baldwin County is at the top of the nation for growth, but we also lead in job creation as a community," Lawson added. "Our balanced and diverse industry base has cultivated an economic engine that stands among the best in the country.”

However, Walter Kemmsies, managing partner at The Kemmsies Group, recently shed light on one of Baldwin County's glaring voids — the need for Class A industrial space. Kemmsies projects the area might call for as much as 60 million square feet of industrial space at this rate. Only 22 million square feet exist currently between both Baldwin and Mobile counties — little of that meeting the necessary Class A standards.

"Our need for Class A industrial product continues to be amplified as we grow and absorb space in our market — we have very little available today," said Lee Johnson, BCEDA executive vice president, in June. "Speed-to-market drives many of our economic development projects, and having readily available industrial space is critical for us to continue to be competitive in recruiting companies."

As Gulf Coast Media previously reported, the new I-10 bridge project and widening of the Port of Mobile are expected to serve as major catalysts for industrial advancement.