The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s first outlook for the 2026-2027 crop year projects the nation’s smallest wheat crop in decades, according to the latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report released Tuesday.

The report forecasts total U.S. wheat production will fall more than 20% from the 2025-2026 crop year, declining from nearly 2 billion bushels to about 1.6 billion bushels. Winter wheat production is expected to drop 25% to just more than 1 billion bushels.

In response, National Association of Wheat Growers CEO Sam Kieffer said growers across the country are struggling with rising costs, market uncertainty and drought conditions.

“Unfortunately, U.S. wheat growers are not surprised by this report. Across the country, farmers continue to face stubbornly high input costs, ongoing uncertainty in global markets and the continual challenge of achieving profitability on the farm. As a result, many farmers are making the difficult decision to plant fewer wheat acres. In addition, much of wheat country is experiencing significant drought,” Kieffer said.

Kieffer also urged lawmakers to advance the Farm, Food, and National Security Act of 2026, saying the legislation would provide support and stability for farmers while encouraging investment and innovation in the wheat industry.

“That is why it is essential for Congress to advance the Farm, Food, and National Security Act of 2026. This legislation would provide much-needed certainty for America’s farmers, expand market opportunities, invest in critical research to combat pests and diseases, and support innovation across the wheat industry. We also call on Congress and the Trump Administration to examine every opportunity to control and reduce rising farm input costs, particularly fertilizer and fuel,” he said.

The full report is available at https://wheatworld.org/.