ORANGE BEACH, AL. — The National Weather Service reports a broad area of low pressure centered just north of the Yucatan Peninsula is producing a large cluster of shows and thunderstorms and winds to tropical storm force over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.

It is unlikely the disturbance will affect the Alabama Gulf Coast, but is likely to be a big rain event for Florida, Georgia and the Carlolinas, the agency said on its website.

Recent satellite and surface data indicate the the low center is located several hundred miles west of the heaviest showers and strongest winds and the circulation is becoming elongated north-northeastward over the central Gulf of Mexico.

The potential for this system to develop appears to be decreasing and it has a low chance, 20 percent, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours as it begins to move north-northeastward at 10 to 15 mph later today.

Regardless of development this system is expected to produce locally heavy rainfall, gusty winds and possible severe weather over the Florida Keys, the Florida peninsula, southern Georgia and coastal sections of the Carolinas during the next day or so.