What is now Tropical Storm Isaias is forecast to rapidly strengthen over the next couple days before taking a predicted track up through Alabama through the north Gulf Coast, with Gulf Shores and Orange Beach possible for impact.
As of 4 a.m., the storm was moving east-northeast near 8 mph, a route that is expected to continue today, Oct. 7, followed by a turn toward the northeast and north on Thursday and Friday.
“On the forecast track, Isaias is expected to pass to the north of the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday and approach the U.S. northern Gulf Coast on Friday,” a National Weather Service advisory states.
It is expected to become the season's first Atlantic hurricane by Thursday.
“The latest NHC forecast track pushes Isaias into the Central Gulf Coast near Gulf Shores around midnight Friday night with sustained winds of 90 mph,” Alabama Weather Network meteorologist James Spann said on his social networks Wednesday morning.
From Friday through the weekend, Isaias is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with localized totals up to 10 inches, across the northern U.S. Gulf Coast extending from far southeastern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle, according to NWS. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches, with localized amounts up to 5 inches, are possible across much of the Southeast as far north as the Tennessee Valley and the Carolinas. Flash and urban flooding, along with isolated river flooding, will be possible.
Spann predicts the first Storm Surge Watch to be issued for a portion of the Gulf Coast along the Alabama coast and Mobile Bay later today.
Near landfall, Isaias will also be interacting with a short-wave trough aloft, likely leading to an expanding wind field. This means rain and wind impacts will extend far from the center on the eastern side of the storm.
“All of Alabama will see Saturday as the tropical system passes through. Heaviest rain will be from Mobile and Baldwin counties northward through parts of West-Central Alabama, where amounts could exceed 5 inches. North and East Alabama will likely see 1-3 inches of rain from Isaias. The rain will end from the south Saturday night, and most of the day Sunday will be dry,” Spann said in his morning update.
For updates and more, follow Gulf Coast Media on Facebook @gulfcoastmedia and online at www.gulfcoastmedia.com/isaias.
