MIAMI - A weak area of low pressure located between the northeastern coast of Cuba and the central Bahamas currently faces unfavorable conditions for development.

But that could change in a few days.

Gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall are likely over portions of the Bahamas, and will likely spread into parts of southern Florida and the Florida Keys during the weekend. Interests elsewhere in Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico should continue to monitor the progress of this disturbance.

Another system in the northern Gulf shows little probably fore becoming a tropical cyclone but could still produce some heavy rains.

In the Cuba system the associated shower and thunderstorm activity has increased during the past few hours, according to the National Hurricane’s 1 p.m. report, but remains disorganized and is located mainly to the east and southeast of the low.

Upper-level winds are expected to remain unfavorable for significant development during the next day or so while the system moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph. However, environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for development early next week when the system approaches the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

Regardless of development, heavy rains, with the potential to cause flash floods and mud slides, are likely over Hispaniola today and over eastern and central Cuba through the weekend.

Formation chance through 48 hours is low at 30 percent and formation chance through five days is medium at 60 percent.

The disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity located over the north-central Gulf of Mexico is associated with a weak area of disturbed weather. Surface pressures in this area are high, and significant development of this system is not expected before it reaches the coast of Texas during the weekend.

However, regardless of tropical cyclone development, this disturbance could produce rainfall along the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to southeastern Texas during the next couple of days.

Formation chance on this disturbance is at 10 percent.