Super Bowl XLIX: The analytics

Michael Hanich, Gulf Coast Media Football Analyst
Posted 1/30/15

• New England Patriots (12-4) and Seattle Seahawks (12-4) under microscope for 49th title game

MONTGOMERY, Ala. —It's that time of year again where the musical act is explosive, the ads are hilarious, and the biggest game under the biggest …

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Super Bowl XLIX: The analytics

Posted

• New England Patriots (12-4) and Seattle Seahawks (12-4) under microscope for 49th title game

MONTGOMERY, Ala. —It's that time of year again where the musical act is explosive, the ads are hilarious, and the biggest game under the biggest stage is being played.

Is there not another more anticipated Super Bowl matchup between the No. 1 AFC seed New England Patriots versus the No. 1 NFC seed Seattle Seahawks. East versus West, No. 1 versus No. 1, the best Quarterback in the game versus the best Corner in the game.

What can be more deserving of attention than a match up in the best sports event in the world? How about a huge controversy against the New England Patriots yet again. In 2007, the Patriots were accused of the controversy known as 'spy gate' were they spied on opposing defenses. They did go to the Super Bowl that year but lost to the New York Giants. This is the first controversy since then but it is being treated as if QB Tom Brady and head coach Bill Belichick were charged with treason against the nation of America.

If you have not watched television or read an article or newspaper here is what happened. In the 1st quarter of the AFC championship game, the refs found that 11 out of the 12 Patriots balls were under deflated. This was spotted after Colts Linebacker D'qwell Jackson picked off Brady in the 2nd quarter. The significance of the under deflated balls gives Brady better ball control, better chances of the ball being caught, and the ball has a lighter effect while thrown. Obviously if there is anything involving the Patriots someone had altered the ball in between the refs checking the balls and game time. Many are speculating that Brady and Belichick are cheaters once again but it is unknown for now that they might be innocent or guilty. The Patriots have told their story and it seems pretty believable as well the Seahawks just want to play. In the meanwhile, the sad case with this controversy otherwise known as 'deflategate' is shifting the attention away from the game itself. I will be focusing on the game itself, even if the Patriots might have cheated, the NFL and the officials will be on full focus to make sure they do not cheat against the Seahawks.

The Seattle Seahawks could be repeating Super Bowl champs yet again after winning last year against Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos. They could also be the first time to repeat as Super Bowl champs since the New England Patriots in 2003 & 2004. Patriots head coach Bill Belichick and Tom Brady will be seeking their 4th Super Bowl win in their 7th appearance in both their careers. They have lost to the last two to the New York Giants in 2008 & 2012. Seattle Seahawks Quarterback Russell Wilson will be seeking his 2nd Super Bowl in his 3 years in the NFL. While Russell is an elite Quarterback in the postseason, he is not solely the reason for their success. The Seahawks defense will be known for a long time as a legendary defense known as “The Legion of Boom.” They are included in a list of names that include “the steel curtain” of the 1976 Pittsburgh Steelers and the famous “46” defense of the 1985 Chicago Bears that won the Super Bowl that year. With this victory, Seattle Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll could be the 1st coach to win two National Championships in College while at USC and two Super Bowls with the Seahawks.

These are two very different systematic of offensive philosophy going on to where they will make plays by a different accord. Patriots are more a long yard, down the field play making system. The Seahawks use a short game situation with a hurry up, no huddle scheme where they can wear out their opponents’ defense especially with their defensive line and inside linebackers. The Seahawks defense is more of a hard hitting, smash in your mouth defense that will make the offense fall and make mistakes. The Patriots defense is a philosophy of analyzing the opponent's offensive schemes and will make adjustments that will make the offenses uncomfortable. One for example I thought was really interesting was in the game against Miami. The Patriots shifted a multitude of players including 3 linebackers on the line of scrimmage when the ball was hiked the Patriots only brought 3 of their defensive line. The presetting adjustments threw the Dolphins off to where DE Chandler Jones made a sack on the play because the Dolphins made shifts in their blocking scheme.

Keys for the Seattle Seahawks

- Control Patriots TE Rob Gronkowski

Gronk is the Patriots in receiving yards with 1124 yards on 82 catches. He is also the leader in reception touchdowns with 12 while the 2nd leading receiving Brandon LeFell has 7. Gronk averages 13.7 yards a catch as well. He is by far the leader in plays over 20 yards with 19 yards with the next receiver (also LeFell) with 10 plays. Gronk has 60 1st downs and he has not fumbled the ball for the Patriots. It is safe to that Gronk is a large part of the Patriots offense and will be poised to make big plays against the Seahawks. Seattle must have a game plan to control Gronk even if that includes double covering him. Another way of doing so is having a tight coverage from the Cornerback opposite Richard Sherman (maybe CB Bryon Maxwell) and then having a Linebacker be in zone coverage nearby. S Kam Chancellor will need to be the last man standing in case Gronk gets the up field as well as watching for red zone touchdowns on quick hitches.

- The Defensive Line and blitzing Linebackers need Tom Brady get out of the pocket constantly

Brady is one of the most successful Quarterback of all time in the NFL so it will take more than great coverage from your secondary to beat the Patriots. One thing that teams have not done consistently is pressure Brady consistent and force to make bad throw after bad throw. The Seahawks don't have just a one man general on the defensive line like the Texans have in J.J Watt and the Bears do in Jared Allen, they have a collection of very talented defensive line in DE Cliff Avril, DE Michael Bennett, DT Tony McDaniels, and DT Jordan Hill. Everyone who sees Sportscenter and thinks they are an expert will be thinking that CB Richard Sherman will be the main key for the talented Seahawks defense and they will be right. The Defensive Line however for the Seahawks will need to be in the Patriots backfield constantly to get Brady into unconformable situations. They do not need to sack him but they do need get inside Brady's head to make him throw bad throw after bad throw.

- Russell Wilson cannot turn the ball over

We couldn't help but see that QB Russell Wilson threw 4 interceptions against the Green Bay Packers in the NFC Championship game. Surely we thought that Wilson was going to throw the Seahawks' chances of winning with the defense playing top notch yet they had chance after chance after chance thanks to the Packers offense not capitalizing on scores when they needed to. It is a very surprising aspect to Russell Wilson because he has only thrown 7 interceptions in the regular season. This cannot happen for Russell as the Seahawks will play an offense that is equal in standards of talent but have a much better offensive scheme and system than the Packers. The Patriots will eventually score being the smart offense they are and finding holes in the Seahawks defense.

- Seahawks offense need to make big plays down the field

The Seahawks are one of the best teams in the yards after catch and making play in short yardage situations. The Patriots are well aware of this and will be in tight coverage in the passing scheme. Beating averages teams have help the Seahawks in most games but if we have learned anything from the 2015 national championship game between the Ohio State Buckeyes and the Oregon Ducks is that if you don't have the plays or available to change your offense, you will have a rough time scoring. That is what happened to the Oregon Ducks in the spread option attack. The Seahawks have a different approach but so much as the Patriots and one thing they do not rely on very much is throwing the ball deep down the field. This will be a play where the Seahawks must where they can't do it consistently they must do it enough to get out of uncomfortable scoring situations. One thing about CB Darrell Revis is that he is a lock down Cornerback to the outside Receiver and there have been plays where likes to have the slot Receiver (inside Wide out) loop to the Outside for a 12 yard vertical. That can be a very efficient play for the Seahawks if they need to go a little deeper.

Keys for the New England Patriots

- The Offensive Line needs to keep pressure off Brady

The Patriots will be facing one of the fastest defensive line in the NFL. The Patriots actually have some of the most consistent Offensive line pass protectors in the NFL. The Patriots are 26th in the NFL in allowed sacks (which is a good thing) with only 21 sacks allowed in the regular season. They have allowed 3 sacks in the postseason as well, two of them allowed from the Baltimore Ravens in the divisional round. The line is led by former 1st round pick from Colorado, Nate Solder, who has been in the spotlight since the Patriots shockingly released OT Matt Light and G Logan Mankins. The Seahawks are not known especially for sacking the Quarterback as they are ranked 20th in the regular season in sacks but they are very efficient in penetrating as well getting in the backfield.

- The Patriots Running game needs to be intact

This will be another aspect where the Patriots offensive line is needed in this category but this involves a dual response from the Patriots running backs. The Running Backs for the Patriots are Jonas Grey, Shane Vereen, and LeGarrette Blunt who rushed for 148 yards and 3 touchdowns against the Colts in the AFC Championship. The Patriots are 18th in the NFL in rushing yards per game with an average of 107.9 yards per game. This is not necessarily a bad thing when it comes to who is your Quarterback and Receivers are. Clearly Brady can lead your team with a dominant rushing game but this game is different as they will be playing the best defense in years competing in the Super Bowl. Blount, Jones, and the offensive line will need to play their best to get the smallest yards possible and get the pressure off Brady and Gronk.

- There cannot be miss tackles from Patriots Defense

Seattle is prone to make players miss tackles with Russell Wilson being an athlete QB who make moves left and right. Linebacker Dont'a Hightower is a player that is not prone to miss tackles. Hightower was not really a leading sacker or coverage specialist at Alabama. Sometimes the most talented Linebackers can be the most consistent tacklers like Ray Lewis was. Malcolm Butler and Jamie Collins are also specialist in making tackles in open spaces. The Patriots are 9th in the league in allowed rushing yards per game with 104.3 yards per game on average. The Seahawks will be testing that statistic as they are first in the league in rushing yards per game with 172.6 yards per game on average.

The Patriots defense need to keep Russell Wilson in the pocket

Russell Wilson is a dangerous Quarterback when he forced to run outside the pocket from a pass rush. He is one of the leading Quarterbacks in rushing yards per game. The Patriots do have a talented group in DE Chandler Jones and DT Vince Wilfork but they cannot pass the Quarterback while trying to make pressure. The Patriots must keep the outside of the tackles covered and make pressure up in the middle if forced to. Allowing Russell to get outside the pocket and run for 8 or 10 yards each time will kill the defense and their energy. If you have the National Championship game and saw Ohio State Buckeyes QB Cardale Jones get out of pocket and get the 1st downs with his feet you would have saw that this crushed the Oregon Ducks tremendously. The same thing can happen to the Patriots defense if they do not keep Russell Wilson in check. The Patriots do have one of the most systematic defense in the league, so one key component is to keep Wilson in the pocket and lock down their Receivers.

Key Match ups of interest

Seahawks Center Max Unger vs Patriots Nose Guard Vince Wilfork

This will be a battle in the trenches where every single inch is important.

Patriots QB Tom Brady vs Seahawks CB Richard Sherman

The Patriots will be trusting their deep threat game that mostly done through WR Julian Edelman, that will most likely be Sherman's man.

Patriots LB Dont'a Hightower and the LB's vs Seahawks RB Marshawn Lynch

It's Seattle's “Beastmode” being Marshawn Lynch who is one of the NFL's best in yards after contact against a very reliable line backing corps with Hightower, who is a great tackler.

Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll vs Patriots head coach Bill Belichick

Two of the greatest head coaches with Carroll being a general manager of bringing talent to Seattle and Belichick being one of the smart and strictest field generals in the league.

Seahawks Defensive Coordinator Jeff Quinn vs Patriots Offensive Coordinator Josh McDaniel Both head coach material and the greatest in their position. The Patriots offense is 6th in the nation in red zone offense while Seattle is 4th in red zone defense.