SPANISH FORT, Ala. — It took just 10 simple words to lift spirits and expectations about Baldwin County’s chances at a speedy economic recovery.

“If you want to buy a house, do it now,” Donald Epley, director of the University of South Alabama’s Center for Real Estate Studies, told a banquet room at the Oyster House on the Causeway Tuesday packed with members and guests of the Eastern Shore Chamber of Commerce.

The crowd listened intently as Epley produced data-driven projections for anticipated job creation, earning capacity and a substantial economic ripple effect expected from several recent large-scale economic development announcements for the larger Mobile Metropolitan Statistical Area, or MSA.

Baldwin County-specific figures are not immediately available, he said, because the federal government no longer provides quarterly data for rural counties. Epley said the spillover felt by the Eastern Shore from even modest projections for the Mobile area are expected to be substantial.

“I’m going to give you some good news,” Epley said before launching into a detailed analysis of the most recent quarterly projections for the area’s anticipated job growth connected with Austal USA’s planned expansion in Mobile and commitment to hire at least 1,800 skilled workers to meet demand created by a recent U.S. naval contract for the construction of 10 littoral combat ships.

The contract, which stands to represent a $5 billion investment in the larger MSA, is expected to create 1,800 direct jobs and 3,655 indirect jobs, resulting in an estimated $179 million in new payroll being pumped into the local economy, he said.

Combine those projections with anticipated job creation by EADS on par with Austal’s numbers and Epley said the region could easily see an influx of 10,000 jobs to the area in the next few years.

“I’ve been doing this for a long time. These are numbers you’d expect to see in Seattle or Dallas, but it’s happening right here,” he said.

The problem he sees, however, is in a region ill-equipped to handle the infrastructure demands such substantial projects stand to create in a short time.

“That’s where this group comes in. You set the priorities,” Epley said.

And he understands the apprehension felt by the business community, especially among real estate professionals and bankers, as the area continues to climb slowly from the pit of a national recession and disastrous oil spill that left the region’s tourism, hospitality and real estate sectors reeling overnight.

In fact, he said the most recent figures available indicate the local economy is actually performing on par with the fourth quarter of 2005, just after Hurricane Katrina ravaged the Gulf Coast.

Pre-Katrina housing statistics showed an estimated 1,800 homes on the market, and that figure has more than doubled to about 3,800 during the past five years.

Using a very conservative estimate, however, that half of every new job created in the area will generate enough income for the worker to buy a home, Epley said the Austal projections alone of some 5,455 jobs being created will almost single-handedly “wipe out that inventory.”

“I think the local economy is about to explode,” he said.

Christi Mossburg with Roberts Brothers Realtors in Daphne said she is hopeful area business leaders will begin focusing on the many positives the Eastern Shore area has going at the moment and detach themselves a bit from the pessimism that has gripped the region since the BP oil spill struck nearly nine months ago.

“I feel like consumer confidence is going up and a lot of people who have been on the fence are starting to realize things aren’t quite as bad as they’ve seemed for so long,” said Mossburg, noting the lion’s share of her business is conducted in Daphne and Spanish Fort, so her market was insulated a little more insulated from the oil spill fallout.

“I don’t sell condos in Gulf Shores, so I’m certainly not saying things look rosy for everybody all across the county, but we do have ThyssenKrupp. We’ve got Austal. Our growth in this area is going to be tremendous, and I think it’s going to start bringing even more and more people down off that fence,” she said.