FAIRHOPE, Ala. — The NOAA Climate Prediction Center has announced that scientific data suggests there could be a near normal or above normal hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin this year.

During a press conference on Thursday, retired Navy Vice Adm. Conrad C. Lautenbacher Ph.D., undersecretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator, said, “Preparation is essential for every hurricane season. Everyone needs to have a plan — to know what to do when a hurricane approaches your area.”

The center outlook calls for a 65 percent probability of an above normal season and a 25 percent probability of a near normal season.

Climate patterns expected during this year’s hurricane season have in past seasons produced a wide range of activity, and have been associated with both near-normal and above-normal seasons, according to forecasters.

For 2008, the outlook indicates a 60 to 70 percent chance of 12 to 16 named storms, including six to nine hurricanes and two to five major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale). An average season has 11 named storms, including six hurricanes for which two reach major status.

Tropical systems acquire a name — the first of which for 2008 will be Arthur — upon reaching tropical storm strength with sustained winds of at least 39 mph. Tropical storms become hurricanes when winds reach 74 mph, and become major hurricanes when winds reach 111 mph.

“We don’t predict whether or when those hurricanes will hit land,” Lautenbacher said. “It only takes one though to make it a bad season.”

Dr. Gerry Bell, the center’s lead seasonal hurricane forecaster, said, “Our goal is to provide the outlook based on the science. It does not forecast landfall or predict activity in any particular region.”

He said two climate factors will likely affect activity this year. One, the multi-decadal signal (the combination of ocean and atmospheric conditions — such as warmer-than normal temperatures in the eastern tropical Atlantic — that have spawned increased hurricane activity since 1995) is still in place. The lingering effects of La Niña is also expected to have an impact.

The Atlantic Hurricane Season begins June 1 and ends Nov. 30.

“Even with all our private and local partners, we cannot do it alone,” said R. David Paulison, director of the Federal Emergency Management Agency, referring to needed advance preparations. “We need the help of the American public. We all play a role in hurricane preparation.”

Paulison advises we stock a hurricane supply kit in advance, and even check storm shutters by making sure all the attaching hardware is in place and in good condition. He said, “Make sure you have a plan. Know where you’re going to go if you evacuate — whether you stay with friends or family.”

FEMA currently has one national response team and two regional teams that Paulison said can activate in an hour and be on the ground in the affected area within 12 hours.

“We need everyone working together,” he said. “That includes individuals, who must take responsibility. Most of the shortcomings we saw in Hurricane Katrina was because we did not have the right leadership on the ground. We didn’t have (adequate) supplies. There were no partnerships with other federal agencies.

“We have doubled the size of FEMA in just two years. It’s a different organization than it was just two years ago. It’s a culture change — changing it from a reactive to a proactive organization.”

Forecasters at the Miami-based National Hurricane Center are in continuous monitoring mode, using a network of satellites, land- and ocean-based sensors and aircraft reconnaissance missions operated by NOAA and its partners. The data collected supplies forecasters the information they need, and it is also used for computer modeling, both of which serve as the basis for the hurricane center’s track and intensity forecasts that extend out five days in advance.

The outlook from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center, located near Washington, D.C., will be updated on Aug. 7, just before what is historically the peak period for hurricane activity.