Miami, Fla. -  FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM BEFORE THE DISTURBANCE REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON THURSDAY. AFTER THAT...THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHERE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL LIKELY BE A LITTLE LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT A

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMS...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE.

2. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS REMAIN WELL ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY OR ON THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS

LATER TODAY AND THURSDAY AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. INTERESTS IN THESE ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS

SYSTEM.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013.