MIAMI – Forecasters continue to predict a northerly turn for newly formed Hurricane Matthew which is currently just off the coasts of Venezuela and Colombia.

There is little change to the track forecast philosophy from the previous advisory, according to a National Hurricane Center advisory. It is forecast to take a northern path along Florida’s east coast.

A low- to mid-level ridge to the north of Matthew should keep it moving westward or south of westward for the next 36 hours with some decrease in forward speed. From 48-120 hours, the ridge is forecast to weaken and shift eastward as a mid- to upper-level trough moves into the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico, the center reported.

“This evolution should cause Matthew to turn northwestward and then northward,” the report said. “There is a significant spread in where the turn will occur and how fast Matthew will move afterwards.

“The intensity forecast is very problematic. The ongoing shear has so far done little to keep Matthew from intensifying. Despite this, the intensity guidance is in unanimous agreement that the cyclone should weaken from 12-48 hours, most likely due to shear.”

From 48-96 hours, the shear is expected to diminish, the report said, and during that time Matthew is expected to intensify until it interacts with land. The intensity forecast will smooth through what could be some ups and downs in intensity.

As of the 4 a.m. report the center of Hurricane Matthew was located near latitude 14.0 north, longitude 69.9 west. Matthew is moving toward the west near 14 mph and this general motion with a decrease in forward speed is forecast through Saturday. A turn toward the northwest is expected Saturday night or Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Matthew could become a major hurricane later today or tonight.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles.