If you have dealt with an elder care need in your family, you may already feel that we are facing a crisis. As the following numbers demonstrate, it is about to get much worse.
68 million
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If you have dealt with an elder care need in your family, you may already feel that we are facing a crisis. As the following numbers demonstrate, it is about to get much worse.
The 68 million baby boomers today range from 62 to 80 years of age. Within five years, they will all be over age 65 and the oldest will be turning 85.
They far outnumber the surviving members of the greatest and silent generations, totaling approximately 12 million together.
The Census Bureau predicts that the number of Americans ages 85 and older will almost triple from 6.7 million in 2020 to 11.8 million in 2035 and 18.5 million in 2050.
The 90-and-over population in the United States after 2030 is projected to grow from about 2 percent of the 65-and-over population in 2010 to more than 10 percent in 2050.
A great number of them will need assistance. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimates that seniors ages 85 and over are six times as likely as their younger counterparts to need help with activities of daily living, with one in five needing such assistance compared with just one in 30 of those ages 65 to 74. The Department of Health and Human Services’ Administration for Community Living reports that people over 85 require nursing home care at eight times the rate of younger seniors.
As a result of the growing 85-and-over population and their need for care, the National Academy of Social Insurance predicts that the number of seniors needing long-term services and supports will rise from 6.3 million in 2015 to 15 million by 2050.
We will not have enough workers to care for them. The Bureau of Labor Statistics projects that the number of home health and personal care aides will need to grow by 740,000 from 4.35 million today to more than 5 million by 2034, just when the need will begin to take off. Unfortunately, it does not provide projections for the need after 2034.
The baby boomers will not be able to pay for the care they need. According to the Federal Reserve Bank, the median household ages 65 to 74 had $200,000 in retirement savings in 2022. Those ages 75 or older had just $130,000.
That is just about enough to pay for one year in a nursing home. According to Genworth’s annual report, the median cost of a private room in a nursing home was $127,750 in 2024. The median cost of assisted living facilities was $71,000 a year. On both, there is wide variation from state to state.
Clearly, with half of households ages 75 or older having less than $130,000 in retirement savings, they cannot pay for nursing home care very long. In fact, if they are married, they are immediately eligible for Medicaid coverage of nursing home care since spouses of nursing home residents are permitted to keep up to $162,000 in savings.
These numbers together demonstrate that the need for care, for family caregivers and for care workers will grow significantly over the next two and a half decades. Yet, few seniors have sufficient retirement savings to pay for their care needs for any length of time. We need to plan for this coming need.
The oldest baby boomers will begin turning 85 in 2031. Will we be ready?
Harry S. Margolis, an elder law attorney in Massachusetts, writes the Substack Risking Old Age in America.
