FAIRHOPE, Ala. — Residents along the northern Gulf Coast recently breathed a collective sigh of relief for the second year in a row when the 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season officially ended Nov. 30.

In spite of initial predictions to the contrary, and a late bloomer named Olga, our stretch of the coast remained unscathed by tropical storms and hurricanes.

Now, even as Colorado State University researchers are being criticized for a few seemingly errant forecasts, the team is again calling for a somewhat above average hurricane season next year.

Dr. Philip Klotzbach, leader of the CSU hurricane forecasting team along with Dr. William Gray, said preliminary data studied by the Tropical Meteorology Project indicates we should mull over the possibility of 13 named storms forming in the Atlantic basin during the 2008 season. Seven of those are predicted to become hurricanes, and of those seven, three are expected to develop into intense or major hurricanes (Saffir/Simpson Scale Category 3 through 5, with sustained winds of 111 mph or more.)

The early report marks the forecast team’s 25th anniversary. Based on the analysis of fall parameters, the upcoming season is expected to be more active than the average 1950-2000 season, Klotzbach said.

He noted the early December prediction is based on a new statistical forecast technique that explains a considerable amount of hurricane variability in hindcasts issued from 1950-2007. Over this time period, the three-predictor scheme correctly forecast above- or below-average seasons in 45 out of 58 years.

Responding to questions Wednesday about CSU forecasts of the last two years, Klotzbach acknowledged, “The forecasts weren’t as successful as we would have liked.”

Although the areas devastated by Hurricane Ivan in 2004 and Katrina in 2005 were not touched this year, he added, “It doesn’t necessarily have to be an active season to be devastating.”

Klotzbach said CSU forecasters called for an inactive season in 1992, the year Hurricane Andrew nearly wiped south Florida off the map. Statistically, the season was indeed below average in tropical development.

He pointed out that 1979 was another fairly inactive season, but yet it produced Frederic, a Category 3 hurricane that caused millions of dollars in damage in Baldwin and Mobile counties.

“Most areas in any given year won’t experience a hurricane,” Klotzbach said. “Just because you have an active season, it doesn’t mean you will get a landfall. When we put out our forecasts, there is uncertainty. Don’t plan or not plan based on a seasonal forecast.”

Klotzbach said Olga, which was being impacted by Hispaniola during the recent phone interview, isn’t unusual.

“We’ve had storms in December in the past,” he said. “This was the 15th named storm of the year. Few have lasted very long. Storms don’t generally make landfall (in December) because there’s so much vertical wind shear.”

The last two summers could just reflect the quiet before the proverbial storm, however.

“Despite fairly inactive 2006 and 2007 hurricane seasons, we believe that the Atlantic basin is still in an active hurricane cycle,” Gray stated in a press release. “This active cycle is expected to continue at least for another decade or two. After that, we’re likely to enter a quieter Atlantic major hurricane period like we experienced during the quarter-century periods of 1970-1994 and 1901-1925.”

The CSU hurricane forecast team also predicts a 60 percent chance that at least one major hurricane will make landfall on the U.S. coastline in 2008. The long-term average probability is 52 percent.

For the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida peninsula, the probability of an intense hurricane making landfall is 37 percent (the long-term average is 31 percent.) For the Gulf Coast from the Florida panhandle west to Brownsville, Texas, the probability is 36 percent (the long-term average is 30 percent.)

The team also predicts above-average major hurricane landfall risk in the Caribbean.

The hurricane team’s forecasts are based on the premise that global oceanic and atmospheric conditions — such as El Niño, sea surface temperatures and sea level pressure — that preceded active or inactive hurricane seasons in the past provide meaningful information about similar trends in future seasons.

Klotzbach said the team is expecting continued warm tropical and north Atlantic sea-surface temperatures, prevalent in most years since 1995, as well as neutral or weak La Niña conditions. These factors are similar to conditions that occurred during the 1953, 1956, 1989, 1999 and 2000 seasons. The average of these five seasons had above-average activity.

“If you have El Niño, that affects the activity,” Klotzbach said. “And dry air causes the season to be less active.”