GCM Staff Report
Please see latest update from National Weather Service of Mobile:
- Tropical Storm Helene is expected to strengthen into a major hurricane as it quickly lifts across the eastern Gulf of Mexico, with an anticipated landfall along the Florida Big Bend area Thursday evening.
- Marine and coastal impacts, including dangerously high surf, deadly rip currents, hazardous marine conditions (due to strong winds and high waves) begin late tonight into early Thursday morning.
- We will also be monitoring for heavy rainfall and wind impacts, particularly across portions of south-central Alabama and the western Florida panhandle
- The earliest reasonable time of arrival of Tropical Storm Force Winds is Thursday morning.
- However, the most likely time this area could see Tropical Storm Force Winds is Thursday afternoon.
Based on the latest track and guidance, the probability for storm surge inundation west of Mexico Beach is very low.
POTENTIAL IMPACTS
- Tropical storm force (>=39 mph) wind speed probabilities are similar to the previous advisory.
- There is a 1 in 10 to 3 in 10 chance of tropical storm force winds across portions of south-central Alabama and northwest Florida.
High risk of deadly rip currents:
- When: Tonight through Friday night
Dangerously high surf:
- When: Late tonight through Friday morning. Breakers greater than 10 feet expected late Thursday afternoon through Thursday night.
- This will likely cause over wash along the more vulnerable coastal roads.
- We will be also monitoring for the potential of at least minor coastal flooding for Thursday night and again on Friday night.
- Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches is currently forecast across south central Alabama and the western Florida panhandle.
- Although this system will move quickly, minor river flooding may become a concern heading into this weekend.
Key take-aways:
- Tropical Storm Helene is expected to intensify into a major hurricane before it approaches the northeastern Gulf Coast on Thursday.
- Confidence has increased that Helene will make landfall east of our area, along the Florida Big Bend.
- The wind field associated with Tropical Storm Helene is expected to be very large and impacts will happen well outside of the cone.
- Greatest impacts to the local area are more likely to be in our marine zones and along our coastal areas.
- If tropical storm force winds are felt in our area, it would most likely be across our far eastern areas, with the earliest time of arrival being Thursday morning.
For your awareness:
- Sand is available: located at the Baldwin County Central Annex (22251 Palmer St. Robertsdale, AL 36567). This is "self-serve". Please bring your own bags and tools if you need sand.
Preparedness tips:
- Have multiple ways of receiving correct information from National Weather Service of Mobile, Baldwin County EMA and your local news outlets.
- Sign up for local, emergency alerts through www.alertbaldwin.com/.
- Know your risks and potential impacts. Know your location on a map, your evacuation zone and potential evacuation routes.
- Have any necessary supplies gathered to be self-sufficient for 5 days. Don’t forget medications and pet supplies.
- Review important documents and insurance policies. Make sure you have flood insurance if needed.
- Make an emergency plan and ensure all family members know how to contact each other and where to meet in case of an evacuation.
- Steer clear of misinformation (especially on social media). Have multiple forms of receiving CORRECT information. (Baldwin County EMA, National Weather Service of Mobile, Local media outlets, etc.)
- Monitor daily beach conditions and be aware of flag warnings. For a daily beach report, text ALBEACHES to 888777.