Tropical disturbance heading toward Gulf, likely to become Helene

Posted

Baldwin County Emergency Management Agency is encouraging residents and visitors of Baldwin County to monitor local weather and be prepared should we have direct impacts to our area. Now is a good time to review your plans and replenish any necessary supplies.

Tropical update:

OVERVIEW:  A tropical disturbance, which recently became designated Invest 97L, has developed in the western Caribbean. Conditions remain favorable for tropical development as this system lifts into the northwest Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico this week. NHC has increased the chance of development to 80% over the next 48 hours and 90% over the next seven days.

WHAT WE KNOW: Confidence continues to increase that Invest 97L will develop into a tropical depression or storm as it lifts northward into the Gulf of Mexico within the next few days. Further strengthening into a hurricane is possible. Confidence also continues to increase that hazardous marine conditions, dangerous surf, and life-threatening rip currents will impact our local beaches and adjacent Gulf waters by Thursday in association with this system.  

WHAT WE DON'T KNOW YET: It is still too early to determine eventual intensity, track, or specific locations in the path of this system at this time, as these details will be difficult to resolve until the system organizes with a well-defined circulation. Rainfall amounts, wind, and the magnitude of storm surge potential in our area will ultimately be dependent on the track of the storm.

Key takeaways

  • No local impacts are expected through Wednesday.
  • The developing system is expected to enter the southern Gulf of Mexico midweek and quickly lift northward toward the northeastern Gulf Coast later this week. It is still too early to determine eventual intensity and specific locations in the path of this system currently
  • Regardless of track, we are becoming increasingly confident that marine and surf conditions will deteriorate starting Thursday as the system moves into the northern Gulf. Rapidly building wave heights, very high surf, and life-threatening rip currents can be expected late this week.
  • While impacts from heavy rainfall, wind, and storm surge will be possible by late this week, it is still too early to speak on specifics as these impacts will be dependent on the eventual track of the storm.
  • Now is a great time to review hurricane preparedness and refresh supplies in preparedness kits.

See graphic for more information.

For your awareness:

  • Sand is available: Baldwin County Central Annex (22251 Palmer St. Robertsdale, AL 36567). This is "self-serve." Bring your own bags and tools if you need sand.

Preparedness tips:

  1. Have multiple ways of receiving correct information from National Weather Service of Mobile, Baldwin County EMA, and your local news outlets.
  2. Sign up for local, emergency alerts through www.alertbaldwin.com/.
  3. Know your risks and potential impacts. Know your location on a map, your evacuation zone and potential evacuation routes.
  4. Have any necessary supplies gathered to be self-sufficient for 5 days. Don’t forget medications and pet supplies.
  5. Review important documents and insurance policies. Make sure you have flood insurance if needed.
  6. Make an emergency plan and ensure all family members know how to contact each other and where to meet in case of an evacuation.
  7. Steer clear of misinformation (especially on social media). Have multiple forms of receiving CORRECT information. (Baldwin County EMA, National Weather Service of Mobile, Local media outlets, etc.)
  8. Monitor daily beach conditions and be aware of flag warnings. For a daily beach report, text ALBEACHES to 888777.