NHC: Caribbean 'disturbance' has 20% likelihood of becoming tropical cyclone

staff report
Posted 8/12/13

Miami, Fla. – While twenty percent likelihood is considered a "low chance" in the weather business, consider how many times a raging thunderstorm brews up on a summer day when local forecasters place rain chances at 20 or 30 percent.

The …

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NHC: Caribbean 'disturbance' has 20% likelihood of becoming tropical cyclone

Posted

Miami, Fla. – While twenty percent likelihood is considered a "low chance" in the weather business, consider how many times a raging thunderstorm brews up on a summer day when local forecasters place rain chances at 20 or 30 percent.

The National Hurricane Center's new 5-day probability calculations are still called 'experimental'. Using that forecast tool, the NHC just tagged a new storm system's potential for development into a tropical cyclone this week at the twenty percent level.

The system is currently located way down in the southwestern Caribbean Sea.

The NHC's Monday afternoon update indicates current conditions are ".... a little more conducive for development during the next several days."

A Canadian model already has the system forecast to grow into a tropical storm and march straight up the Gulf into central Alabama by Saturday.

All forecast agencies agree it's too early for solid development and movement predictions. Updates will be constant.

Here's the full 2 p.m. statement from the National Hurricane Center:

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHEASTWARD TO NEAR HISPANIOLA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE AND A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT... OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013.